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Kucukmehmetoglu, M. (2009). A game theoretic approach to assess the impacts of major investments on transboundary water resources: The case of the Euphrates and Tigris. Water Resources Management, 23(15): 3069-3099.
Abstract: There are varying and inconsistent claims among countries sharing the same river basins. While upstream countries are asserting that they regulate flows through built-up reservoirs (enabling flood prevention) and reduce seasonal flow variations (providing water during drought seasons), downstream countries criticize upstream countries for excessive withdrawals and declining annual flows. Behind the scene, almost every basin country unilaterally envisions of ambitious projects demanding extensive water withdrawals for their prospective development and growth. This study establishes a methodology to measure the rational economic and political impacts of extensive reservoir projects throughout a basin, using the case of the Euphrates and Tigris. This methodology uses both linear programming applications calculating country and coalition benefits, and game theory concepts (core and Shapley value) for evaluating the impacts of reservoirs. The Euphrates and Tigris River Basin Model (ETRBM) is extended by adding the time dimension. In conjunction with time, reservoir capacities are incorporated into the model as a new set of parameters enabling resources allocations over multiple periods. In a rational economic view, the existence of reservoirs, while providing certain advantages in allocating water overtime, provides varying geopolitical powers to upstream and downstream basin countries. As a result of model applications, it is observed that basin-wide coalitions may potentially eliminate construction of excessive reservoir capacities, and, therefore, unnecessary investment costs and evaporation losses. It is also observed that assuming the absence of downstream reservoirs, the upstream reservoirs provide significant, first, economic benefit to the all forms of coalitions with upstream country and associated parties and, second, power to the country having the reservoirs in any coalition scenario. However, again in a game theoretic perspective, the power of upstream countries looses some of its weight when downstream reservoirs are incorporated. During drought years, the availability of reservoirs ensures extensive core solutions and encourages a grand coalition among all parties.
Kucukmehmetoglu, M. & Geymen, A. (2008). Urban sprawl factors in the surface water resource basins of Istanbul. Land Use Policy, 26: 569-579.
Abstract : This paper presents the reasons for uncontrolled land-use changes in thewater resource basins of Istanbul. These changes are evaluated with a Geographical Information System (GIS), using four Landsat (1990, 1995, 2000, 2005) satellite images. Additional spatial information about capital improvement projects (highways and the Bosporus bridges), industrial land-use decisions, land ownership, and jurisdictional boundaries is also utilized. We observe that the most critical land-use changes have occurred in places with higher accessibility, mostly in close proximity to the metropolitan city center. The literature describes large public capital improvement projects (primarily the Trans European Motorway – TEM) as the primary reason for a trend of illegal occupation of public lands; however, the TEM should not be considered as the sole reason. This study explores other possible causes for these illegal developments in the water resource basins, grouped into three broad dimensions physical, socio–economic–political, and legal. Finally, we put forward possible policy suggestions for the preservation of the limited surface water resource basins in Istanbul.
Kucukmehmetoglu, M. & Geymen, A. (2008). Measuring the spatial impacts of urbanization on the surface water resource basins in Istanbul via remote sensing. Environmental Monitoring and Assessment, 142(1-3):153-69.
Abstract: Istanbul is one of the largest metropolitan cities in the World. The city has experienced rapid industrialization and urbanization in the second half of the twentieth century. Between 1950 and 2000, the city has grown by an average of 4.5% annually. Given the scale of the growth, neither local nor the central governments have shown capability of controlling the influx of migration, most of which settled illegally on public lands. Most of the settlements lack the basic sewerage facilities, and a significant portion of which are on the major water resource basins. As of today, Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality (IMM) not only has to cope with the infrastructure problems, but also has to find ways of solving the problem of illegal occupations of public lands and water resource basins. This paper presents the land use changes in the water resource basins providing water to the Istanbul Metropolitan Area. Using four consecutive Landsat images between 1990 and 2005, the changes in 12 different land use categories are obtained via overlay.